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"Vision Zero" -- no more deaths from highway accidents.
The idea was born in Sweden, where it's had spectacular
success in reducing traffic fatalities. Now zeroing out all traffic
fatalities must become an explicit U.S. and worldwide goal. Otherwise
we have no prospect of taming the appalling roadway death toll --
42,000 lives lost yearly in the United States, close to 1.2 million
worldwide.
That's the message of Mark Rosenberg, founder and former
director of the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
My first reaction was skepticism when I heard Rosenberg
argue the case at a Global Urban Summit in Italy this summer. But he
makes a compelling comparison to global eradication of smallpox -- a
stunning public health success. The know-how for a cure -- the vaccine
-- had been known for decades, but it took a worldwide commitment to
finally control the disease.
Traffic deaths, Rosenberg insists, constitute an epidemic we can
prevent. Sweden has succeeded, driving its yearly toll down to 440,
lowest since World War II. Annual traffic-related deaths of children,
once 118, sank to 11 at last count.
How did the Swedes do it? Tough seat belt and helmet laws, to be
sure. But they've also begun to remake their roadways. Red lights at
intersections (which encourage drivers to accelerate dangerously to
"beat the light") are being replaced with traffic circles. Four-foot
high barriers of lightweight but tough Mylar are being installed down
the center of roadways to prevent head-on collisions. On local streets,
narrowed roadways and speed bumps, plus raised pedestrian crosswalks,
limit speeds to a generally non-lethal 20 miles an hour.
Britain, New Zealand and the Netherlands are also
registering major success with safety redesign and tough roadway rules.
New Zealand cut its death rate by 50 percent in 10 years. But in the
United States, we're "stuck," notes Rosenberg, at 42,000 to 43,000
deaths a year, adding:
"If those 42,000 deaths came from air accidents, air traffic
would come to a screaming halt, all airports closed until we fixed the
problem. But because our staggering numbers of road deaths come in ones
and twos, they don't get attention. Fatalism is our biggest enemy."
Across the world, says Rosenberg, road injuries are likely to
double by 2020 and could well total 100 million by 2050. The big
reason: rapid motorization of India and China, indeed the entire
developing world (the capitalistic dream of every automaker from
General Motors to Toyota).
Cars and trucks are especially lethal in developing
countries as they accelerate on roadways filled with pedestrians,
cyclists, jitneys and sometimes farm animals and hand-drawn wagons.
Without the protection of riding in one's own vehicle (our
"steel cages," Rosenberg notes), vast majorities of children and adults
in such countries face a high danger of direct and deadly vehicle
impact. In Vietnam, for example, there are almost 3,000 fatalities for
every 10,000 crashes.
Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) projects that
highway deaths may well pass global death tolls from HIV-AIDS in the
next two decades. And the death toll doesn't include serious injuries,
which WHO estimates as high as 50 million annually, many resulting in
lifelong paralysis and permanent disability.
I asked Rosenberg if Americans have any stake in the
developing world's traffic dangers. A "big one," he replied, noting
that U.S. business people (engineers and CEOs), soldiers and students
all travel there. Plus, he insists, we could play a huge humanitarian
role with our resources and knowledge.
Some developing world cities -- Bogota, Colombia, for example
-- have shown it is possible to cut roadway accidents dramatically by
rigorous crackdowns on reckless or drunk driving and improved street
layouts.
But if developing nations were helped to build their new
roads, and remade old ones using technologies such as Sweden's traffic
dividers, literally millions of lives could be saved, tens of millions
of frightening injuries avoided.
Rosenberg, a former U.S. assistant surgeon general and now
executive director of the Task Force for Child Survival and
Development, is making a life cause, helping create a world network to
spread the "Vision Zero" concept.
And, he notes, there's been lots of international action
since the United Nations General Assembly first debated the issue in
2004. A U.N. Road Safety Collaboration was brought together by WHO. The
World Bank is mobilizing resources to help developing countries in
particular. George Robertson of Britain, a former secretary-general of
NATO, chairs a new Commission for Global Road Safety. There's now a
push for a 2009 U.N. Ministerial Conference on road safety -- a
first-ever meeting of Cabinet-level officials from both developing and
developed countries to set a global strategy.
"A hundred million lives are at stake," says Rosenberg. "With
‘Vision Zero' we have a chance to avoid an unimaginable disaster. It's
hard to walk away from it."
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